The Israel-Hamas War Has Upended the Terrorist Threat Matrix

Today’s terrorist threat matrix seems more like an abstract expressionist painting. To those accustomed to traditional landscapes, it is difficult to discern what it depicts. Events are less predictable.

As FBI Director Christopher Wray testified before Congress, “the range of threats…is enormous.”

As with past conflicts in the Middle East, the current fighting in Gaza may well provoke terrorist repercussions beyond the region. The magnitude and shape of the terrorist threat depends on the course of the conflict: How long it lasts. Whether external parties—Hezbollah or Iran—decide on full-scale intervention, or Israel launches a preemptive attack to prevent them from doing so. Whether America is drawn further into the fight.

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