Is Turkey heading toward civil war?

Από: Michael Rubin

Turkey is approaching a crisis from which it might not recover. Overnight, under the guise of a counterterrorism operation, forces answering to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have begun to arrest the leadership of Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), Turkey’s largest Kurdish party and the third largest party in parliament. If Turkey’s Kurds feel they have no longer have recourse to settle their grievances through the legal political process, they may resort to violence.

In effect, Erdogan has just thrown gasoline on a smoldering ethnic fire. Between 1984 and 1999, Turkey fought a bloody Kurdish insurgency led by the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) that cost tens of thousands of lives. That struggle was largely contained to southeastern Turkey, but the destruction of villages and internal displacements now mean that Kurds live across Turkey, including in Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir, and Antalya. Renewed violence will embroil all Turkey, and could lead to outright civil war.

What would this mean for Turkey’s future? For the struggle against the Islamic State? And for NATO? Is there a scenario now where the Kurds will subordinate themselves to Turkish rule or will they now demand outright autonomy if not formal separation?

To answer these questions and more, please see my most recent monograph “Kurdistan Rising? Considerations for Kurds, Their Neighbors, and the Region” (Also available on Kindle). It is based on extensive interviews not only with Turkish and Turkish Kurdish politicians from across the political spectrum, including some of those now under arrest, but also PKK leaders, journalists, and civil society activists. It goes beyond the emotive issues and examines the key political, economic, military, legal and diplomatic issues that the not only Turkey and the Kurds, but also the United States and NATO must consider as this crisis develops.

 
Michael Rubin is a former Pentagon official whose major research areas are the Middle East, Turkey, Iran and diplomacy. Rubin instructs senior military officers deploying to the Middle East and Afghanistan on regional politics, and teaches classes regarding Iran, terrorism, and Arab politics on board deploying U.S. aircraft carriers. Rubin has lived in post-revolution Iran, Yemen, both pre- and post-war Iraq, and spent time with the Taliban before 9/11. His newest book, Dancing with the Devil: The Perils of Engaging Rogue Regimes examines a half century of U.S. diplomacy with rogue regimes and terrorist groups.