Trump’s Syria decision will be responsible for ISIS 2.0
Late Sunday night, the White House announced it would greenlight a Turkish incursion into northern Syria. “Turkey will be moving forward with its long-planned operation into Northern Syria. The United States Armed Forces will not support or be involved in the operation. … Turkey will now be responsible for all ISIS fighters in the area,” the press secretary stated after President Trump spoke by phone with Turkish President Recep Erdoğan.
Trump may believe that supporting the stable, self-governing entity which Syrian Kurds, Christians, Yezidis, and Arabs have created in northeastern Syria is not a U.S. interest. Frankly, realists may agree that morality has no place in foreign policy. They are wrong on both counts.
What happens in Syria does not stay in Syria. If the past is precedent, the United States may find itself in unexpected conflict and may need to partner with indigenous forces. Any would be right to conclude that partnership with the U.S. is fleeting and perhaps even suicidal. Russia, in contrast, stands by allies even when they utilize chemical weapons.
More broadly, blessing and enabling a Turkish operation into northern Iraq is to allow the resurrection of the Islamic State. Turkish leaders say the Syrian Defense Forces and various Kurdish militias are terrorist groups linked to the Kurdistan Workers Party.
Having visited northeastern Syria twice over the past five years, Turkish claims fall flat. The Kurdish administration is invested in governing; its security forces focus on providing security against al Qaeda and the remnants of the Islamic State.
Nor are Turkey’s description of the Kurds accurate. While it is true that the Kurdistan Workers Party was originally Marxist and anti-Western, it has evolved over the last 35 years. The Kurdistan Workers Party did fight an insurgency inside Turkey, but that insurgency had two sides. Turkey’s racism and penchant for ethnic cleansing instigated backlash. The original Kurdistan Workers Party designation has more to do with the Clinton administration wishing to grease a weapons sale package to Turkey than objective assessment.
While Erdoğan and Turkish diplomats may complain that the U.S. should not partner with Syrian Kurds regardless, it is important to remember that U.S. partnership occurred only after failing for three years to get Turkey to stop supporting radical and extremist groups in Syria. At the pivotal battle for Kobane, Kurdish fighters held out for weeks against an Islamic State onslaught only to emerge victorious. That in itself was a miracle which Turkey sought to undermine, even allowing Islamic State fighters to cross its border in order to attempt to outflank Kurds fighting the Islamist radicals.
Erdoğan’s collusion with the Islamic State goes much deeper. About 90% of foreign fighters entering Iraq and Syria to fight with al Qaeda or the Islamic State traversed the Turkish border, often with the facilitation of Turkish security forces. So too did weaponry. While the Washington Post appears intent to whitewash Erdoğan’s crimes against journalists, many of those in prison or exile are there for exposing collusion between Turkey and the Islamic State.
Putting Erdoğan in charge of containing the Islamic State is akin to trusting Iran to protect international shipping lanes. Trump’s decision both to withdraw U.S. forces and greenlight a Turkish incursion not only promises a revival of the Islamic State and renewed conflict in one of the only peaceful parts of Syria, but it likely also foreshadows terrorism and civil war inside Turkey. The Kurds have nowhere to go: northeastern Syria was their safe-haven. Erdoğan also does not understand history: Every country (Saudi Arabia, in Pakistan, in Libya, in Syria, and perhaps even the U.S.) who believed they could use radical Islamism as a tool ended up suffering blowback. Turkey will not be the exception.
Trump considered dining with the Taliban on the week of Sept. 11 this year, but wisely canceled his summit. What he is doing in Syria is even worse, however, because he is ensuring the Islamists have a safe haven unlike any enjoyed by radical Islamists since the Clinton administration trusted Taliban promises to curtail promises two decades ago.
Domestically, Trump’s legacy may be impeachment. Internationally, his Sunday night decision guarantees an Islamic State 2.0 and future attacks on Americans, American interests, and the homeland.
Michael Rubin is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, where he researches Arab politics, the Gulf Cooperation Council, Iran, Iraq, the Kurds, terrorism, and Turkey. He concurrently teaches classes on terrorism for the FBI and on security, politics, religion, and history for US and NATO military units.
A former Pentagon official, Dr. Rubin has lived in post-revolution Iran, Yemen, and both pre- and postwar Iraq, and he spent time with the Taliban before 9/11. He is the author, coauthor, and coeditor of several books exploring Iranian history, American diplomacy, Kurdish studies, and Shi’ite politics, including “Kurdistan Rising” (AEI Press, 2016), “Dancing with the Devil: The Perils of Engaging Rogue Regimes” (Encounter Books, 2014); and “Eternal Iran: Continuity and Chaos” (Palgrave, 2005).
Dr. Rubin has a Ph.D. and an M.A. in history from Yale University, where he also obtained a B.S. in biology.
