Will infrastructure bend or break under climate stress?

When Hurricane Sandy struck the eastern seaboard of the United States in October 2012, subways, airports, and roads were flooded, causing transportation to grind to a halt. Millions lost power, some for days or weeks, shutting down businesses and creating public safety issues. In addition to winds knocking out one-fourth of cell phone towers in the Northeast, the loss of electricity forced many towers offline after depleting their emergency batteries. Eleven billion gallons of sewage flowed into rivers, bays, and coastal waters because severe inundation overwhelmed municipal wastewater systems. In total, the storm caused about $70 billion in damages. But despite being one of the costliest and most destructive storms on record, this event was not an aberration. Nine of the costliest mainland US hurricanes on record have occurred in the past 15 years. Going forward, climate change is expected to further intensify these risks.¹

Infrastructure usually involves large investments in assets that are designed to operate over the long term. Coal-fired plants are designed for 40 to 50 years, for example, and hydropower dams and large geotechnical structures for up to 100 years. To date, the design of these facilities typically has assumed a future climate that is much the same as today’s. However, a changing climate and the resulting more extreme weather events mean those climate bands are becoming outdated, leaving infrastructure operating outside of its tolerance levels. This can present direct threats to the assets as well as significant knock-on effects for those relying on the services those assets deliver.

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Πηγή: mckinsey