ΗΠΑ: «Σοκ ύφεσης» μπροστά

You don’t often see language this blunt in a research note. So this leapt out at me in an alert to clients this week from Bank of America Global Research:

• “‘inflation shock’ worsening … ‘rates shock’ just beginning … ‘recession shock’ coming.”

A “Zeitgeist” section added these snappy client quotes: “can’t make my mind up if it’s recession or stagflation” and “recession now soooo consensus.”

• The recession calls, of course, are about what might happen later this year or in ’23 — not a comment about current conditions.

 Between the lines: The ultra-tight job market and high inflation are two sides of the same coin, Axios chief economic correspondent Neil Irwin explains.

• The super tight-job marketis fueling higher wages and strong demand — which is why the Fed is going to have to move more aggressively than it has in decades to try to quash inflation.

The bottom line: The risk is that the cost of that inflation-fighting campaign is a recession.

Πηγή: axios.com