Element of surprise — the West needs to be more unpredictable

The West’s preoccupation with transparency, debate and consensus has rendered it slow and predictable. In this age of strategic competition, it is imperative that it regains the ability to surprise.

 
Surprise is not a new military tactic; quite the opposite. But it is seldom valued much in statecraft. If the question is how to keep an adversary off balance and on the back foot, then the answer must be to do the unexpected, repeatedly. When it comes to war there is a template for everything, a doctrine for everything, a history for everything, a parallel which enables lessons to be learned (or not). But we learn, again and again, that the critical element is surprise. In an era of state competition, the edge will go to the states most capable of surprising. Can the West recover a culture of surprise, where it not only takes the initiative but is comfortable with being unpredictable?

A great surprise will get you into the history books. The Trojan Horse. Robin Hood’s ensnarements of the Sherriff of Nottingham’s men. The ambush in the Khyber Pass of the retreating British army contingent of over 16,000 which left only one survivor. The sabotage of the heavy water facility at Telemark. Pearl Harbour. Every dawn attack on an enemy camp contains an equal level of romance and catastrophe. The Russian General Mikhail Skobelev (1843-1882) argued you could not conquer without surprise. Known as the ‘White General’ because he wore a white uniform and rode a white horse, he was famed during his short lifetime for daring, tactical brilliance and brutality on an epic scale during the Russian expansion into Central Asia and the Russo-Turkish War of 1877-78. But many of these examples are of tactical surprises, not strategic ones.

A surprise depends on the ability to imagine the unexpected and make it happen. It requires bold and creative thinking, careful planning, secrecy, understanding of the opponent, and predictability on their part. The good surprises have style. A surprise means going first. It will almost always entail a risk, because by definition it will not be a result of consultation with your adversary. And this will require courage, and the preparedness to lose. It can be high risk, and not all surprises work.

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Πηγή: engelsbergideas.com