New CER insight ‘Trump sounds the retreat: Can European defence advance?’ by Ian Bond

Donald Trump may not succeed in withdrawing US troops from Germany this year, but Europeans cannot assume that the Americans will stay forever. European defence spending must become more efficient and effective.

 
After years of complaining that the US spends too much on defending wealthy allies, President Donald Trump has confirmed that he intends to reduce the number of US troops stationed in Germany to 25,000, from the current figure of around 34,500. The announcement, made without formally consulting Germany or NATO, has caused disquiet in Europe, raising worries about the US’s long-term commitment to European security. But Europeans need to move from vague concern to strategic reflection and concerted action.

There are still no details of Trump’s plans for forces taken from Germany, which hosts more than half of all US forces in Europe. Trump agreed last year to transfer 1,000 troops from Germany to Poland, and after his meeting with Polish President Andrzej Duda on June 24th, he implied that the US would now transfer more. He also suggested that some might go elsewhere in Europe. But most seem likely to end up back in the US.

The threats to Europe have not diminished. In recent years, Russia has strengthened its forces facing NATO. In early June, Moscow said that it had reinforced its Western Military District, adding about 3,000 men and 90 tanks to the First Guards Tank Army (which had itself been reactivated in 2014, and already had between 35,000 and 50,000 troops and 500-600 tanks). Trump’s announcement of troop reductions in Germany came soon afterwards. But Russia is not the only problem: there are conflicts all around Europe’s southern borders as well – in the Middle East, North Africa and the Sahel. Without substantial American help, Europe barely has the capabilities to contain them, let alone bring them to an end.

 
Ian Bond is director of foreign policy at the Centre for European Reform.

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Πηγή: cer.eu