The coronavirus could throw global progress in reverse

9 Μαΐου, 2020 8:18 μμ

Too hot to handle-The kids aren’t all right

 
From rising poverty rates to worsening hunger to renewed conflict, the COVID-19 pandemic threatens to put a halt to decades of remarkable progress for the world’s population.

The big picture: The story of humanity in the postwar era and even further back is largely one of success, of longer lives, lessened poverty, and greater freedom. But the unprecedented shock of the coronavirus could change much of that — unless the world’s governments act quickly to protect the most vulnerable.

Driving the news: Economic data released on May 8 showed the U.S. shed a record 20.5 million jobs in April, resulting in an unemployment rate of 14.7% — the worst since the Great Depression.

• As bad as those numbers are — and they are very, very bad — the situation is far worse for much of the world’s population, especially those in developing countries who had just begun to emerge from extreme poverty.
• According to the International Labor Organization, 1.6 billion workers in the informal employment sector are in danger of losing their livelihoods because of the pandemic.

While nearly 1 in 5 young children in the U.S. are reportedly food insecure — a rate three times as high as the worst figures during the Great Recession — the UN warns the number of starving people worldwide could double this year to some 265 million.

• By the end of the year, half a billion peoplecould be pushed into destitution because of the pandemic.

Background: This economic and human catastrophe comes after decades that saw life get better and better for most of the people in most of the world.

• A 2013 surveyfound 67% of Americans thought global poverty was on the rise, even though the share of the world’s population living on less than $1.90 a day fell from 44% in 1980 to 9.6% in 2015.
• The percentage of the world’s population defined as undernourishedfell from 19% in 1990 to 11% in 2014.
• Despite the occasional spike, the absolute number of people killed in war and conflict has been declining since 1946. Average global life expectancyhas increased over the same period from around 50 years to 71 years.

Even with those improvements — which appear all the more remarkable if you extend the historical scale to before the Industrial Revolution, when an estimated 94% of the world was poor — there were signs that global progress might be set to stall.

• Human-made climate change went from largely nonexistent in the mid-20th century to an existential threat that could cost the global economy nearly $8 trillionby 2050.
• Even before the pandemic, income inequalityin the U.S. was at its highest level since the government began tracking it in 1967. And S. life expectancy dropped in 2019 for the third year in a row.
• According to the nonprofit Freedom House, global democracyhas been on the decline for years.

What’s next: The UN is urging rich nations to set aside $90 billion to protect the most vulnerable 10% of the world’s poorest people. That would be paid for with a one-time $30 billion increase in the $150 billion dedicated to official development assistance, with the rest coming from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

• Reality check: While nations have channeled hundreds of millionsin aid to directly fight the coronavirus, finding an additional $30 billion in the midst of a global economic depression is an impossibly tough ask.

The bottom line: The progress the world has seen over the past several decades is nothing short of remarkable. But there is no guarantee that story will continue.

 
-Too hot to handle

A pair of scientific studies published this week tracked the dangerous increase in heat and humidity from climate change so far — and projected a future that could be too hot for billions of people.

Why it matters: Don’t forget the warming in global warming. A more populous humanity will be hard-pressed to adapt to a world where large stretches of land are simply too hot to live in easily.

A study published in Science Advances on May 8 identified thousands of unprecedented periods of extreme heat and humidity in areas around the world, including in the U.S. Gulf Coast region.

• The study analyzed weather data and found extreme heat and humidity combinations doubled between 1979 and 2017.
• Along the already brutally hot Persian Gulf, there were more than a dozen times when the mix of high temperatures and humidity temporarily exceeded the theoretical human survivability level.

Of note: Scientists assess the heat and humidity combination using what is known as wet-bulb temperature, which is literally measured by wrapping a thermometer in a wet cloth.

• A wet-bulb temperature of 95 F is lethal after about six hours.

Another study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences on May 4 looked at the next half-century and found one-third of the world’s population could end up living in areas considered unsuitably hot for human beings.

• While today only about 25 million people live in the world’s hottest areas, with mean annual temperatures above 84 F, by 2070 extreme heat could have spread to multiple regions, including parts of India, the Middle East and Australia.
• Coupled with expected population growth, that could mean as many as 3.5 billion people living under extreme heat stress.

Yes, but: The study is based on what the authors called a worst-case scenario, where little is done to curb greenhouse gas emissions. And as the global population gets richer — assuming that trend continues — more people will be able to afford air conditioning, though such adaptation would add to carbon emissions.

The bottom line: The studies show that the livable climate we’ve taken for granted for thousands of years is not the one we’ll be enduring in the future.

 
-The kids aren’t all right

Experts fear children will be suffering from the psychological effects of the pandemic for decades — even down to the level of their genes.

Why it matters: Children are not exempt from the stress associated with the pandemic and its accompanying economic shock, and we could be reckoning with the scars of the experience for generations.

Driving the news: A new survey of more than 6,000 parents and children in the U.S., UK and other countries by the charity Save the Children found about 1 in 4 children living under COVID-19 lockdowns are dealing with anxiety and are at risk of depression.

• Though children have been largely shielded from the disease itself — with some frightening exceptions— they’ve been unable to go to school, visit friends or extended family, or even enjoy city playgrounds.

Context: Based on past research into the long-term effects of economic stress, experts worry the impacts of the pandemic will be felt by children long after the disease itself is finally conquered.

• “The poorest households simply won’t recover from the effects on education and lost income,” says Candice Odgers, co-director of the Child and Brain Development Program at the Canadian NGO CIFAR. “For many children their safety place is school, and that has been pulled out from under them.”

How it works: While the anxiety and feelings of depression connected to the pandemic may seem purely psychological, research suggests those intense stressors can affect children’s genes and biological development.

• “These early life experiences literally get under the skin,” says Michael Kabor, a professor of medical genetics at the University of British Columbia. “That’s why we think the secondary effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are going to be profound.”

The bottom line: Experts urge policymakers to ensure that benefits and aid be distributed equitably to children at all income levels. And while they deal with their own coronavirus anxieties, parents should be mindful of what their children are enduring.

 
Πηγή: axios.com