How Far Can Turkey Challenge NATO and the EU in 2020?
Today’s Turkey is more nationalist and more inclined to assert its political and military power than in recent years. To deal with Ankara, NATO and the EU must be firm, resolute, and yet cooperative.
In their dealings with Turkey in 2020, NATO and the European Union will sit across a more assertive interlocutor than ever before, but one they can hardly ignore.
NATO leaders will have to cope with the actual deployment of Russian S-400 missiles, the possible acquisition of Russian fighter aircraft, the continuing Turkish military operations in northern Syria, and an incipient military deployment in Libya.
EU leaders will deal with ongoing issues, such as Syrian refugees in Turkey, the expulsion of jihadists of EU origin, and drilling operations around Cyprus, as well as new topics like the agreement with Libya on maritime boundaries, the implications for EU businesses resulting from eventual U.S. sanctions, and the consequences of Brexit for Turkey’s relations with the UK and the EU.
The number and seriousness of these issues, as well as the potential for more adverse developments in Turkey’s policies, justify a firm, resolute, and yet cooperative policy from NATO and the European Union.
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