The Case for Why Biden Will Win

I’ve been feeling more pessimistic than usual, because let’s be honest: Things are not great.

• There’s a yawning disconnect between voter sentiment and economic reality.
• The most successful first-term president since either Clinton or H.W. Bush has an impeachment proceeding against him for [reasons] and voters don’t seem to care.
• Republicans are going to nominate a guy who attempted a coup and now expressly says he’d like to be a dictator.
• This aspiring dictator is leading the incumbent president in most polls.
• Ukraine has bogged down, Russia is making small gains, and America is wavering in its support for the most consequential European war since WWII.

But last night on TNB our economist friend Noah Smith made a pretty radical argument:

Even though it feels like we’re in a moment that is outside of historical norms, the long-running dynamics of economics and politics are still at work. And these dynamics suggest that Joe Biden is likely to win reelection.

 
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