Disciplined Outlook – Where Are We Now?
Friedrich Nietzsche’s doctrine of eternal recurrence is the idea that time repeats itself in an eternal loop.1 It’s interesting in the context of economic growth as we tend to think of economic growth across “cycles” or repeating ups and downs. But in reality the economy doesn’t look so much like a “cycle”. It looks more like a line from the bottom left to the top right with occasional shocks that create the illusion of a regular cycle. And while the process of economic growth might not be a clean cycle like a sine wave it is a series of repeated asymmetric booms and busts built on the back of human reaction and overreaction. Luckily for us, the booms tend to be the ones that are more often asymmetrically skewed.
Navigating those booms and busts often feels like predicting the reactions and overreactions of someone who is mentally unstable. And difficult as that may be it is a necessary part of life and any good approach to public policy and investment. But while this is an inherently imprecise endeavor it’s one that all of us must engage in in order to navigate the world’s future probabilistic outcomes. So, where are we now and where might we be going?
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Πηγή: disciplinefunds.com
