Global Economic Outlook: COVID-19 has taken a hold of the global economy

COVID-19 is having a major impact on both the Chinese and the global economy

-We expect global economic growth to amount to 1.6% in 2020 and 3.2% in 2021

-Apart from China, emerging markets are currently experiencing the most economic pain

-There is a real risk that the spread of COVID-19 will be more serious than we are currently estimating in our base scenario

-In a risk scenario of a pandemic, the economic losses in 2020 could roughly double

-There is an additional risk that the economic crisis in the risk scenario could lead to liquidity problems at businesses around the world, which would threaten financial stability. This is an additional risk and is not taken into account in our pandemic risk scenario

-A robust response from the central banks and governments should prevent the virus crisis becoming a financial crisis as well

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Πηγή: economics.rabobank.com