How could Coronavirus impact Italy’s economy?
-Northern Italy is the current center of the coronavirus outbreak in Europe.
-Restrictions on travel have been introduced – both in Italy and beyond.
-It could have knock-on effects on an already sluggish Italian economy.
Northern Italy currently is the center of the COVID-19 outbreak in Europe. So far, 17 Italians have died as a result of the new coronavirus, and 650 have been infected. Schools in the region have been shut, universities have suspended lessons, companies have asked their staff to work from home, and many theaters, cinemas, and bars are closed. The virus caused the cancellation of the last two days of the Venice Carnival, which attracts thousands of visitors every year. And the area south of Milan, where Italy’s first COVID-19 cases were reported, is under quarantine.
Epidemics are not new in Northern Italy, which was at the center of trade routes throughout the Middle Ages and the Renaissance. In fact, Venice was the first city to develop methods to contain and treat virulently contagious diseases. Back then, the authorities isolated people with symptoms in lazarets (ships permanently at anchor and used for quarantine) on islands outside the city, and restricted the movements and interactions of healthy Venetians during a 40-day quarantine period.
Evidence is mixed as to whether these measures were effective. Milan lost almost half its population to the plague in 1630, and Venice lost approximately 30%. But the mortality rate could have been much higher had the authorities not fought the contagion the way they did.
Modern medicine and healthier living standards have greatly reduced the frequency of epidemics, significantly slowed the pace of contagion, and slashed mortality rates. The overall mortality rate from COVID-19 currently is around 34 per thousand, with elderly people and those with health problems being most at risk. Epidemics in early modern Northern Italy, by comparison, had mortality rates of 300-400 per thousand.
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