IMF: Drawing Further Apart: Widening Gaps in the Global Recovery

The recovery is not assured until the pandemic is beaten back globally

 
The global economic recovery continues, but with a widening gap between advanced economies and many emerging market and developing economies. Our latest global growth forecast of 6 percent for 2021 is unchanged from the previous outlook, but the composition has changed.

Growth prospects for advanced economies this year have improved by 0.5 percentage point, but this is offset exactly by a downward revision for emerging market and developing economies driven by a significant downgrade for emerging Asia. For 2022, we project global growth of 4.9 percent, up from our previous forecast of 4.4 percent. But again, underlying this is a sizeable upgrade for advanced economies, and a more modest one for emerging market and developing economies.

We estimate the pandemic has reduced per capita incomes in advanced economies by 2.8 percent a year, relative to pre-pandemic trends over 2020-2022, compared with an annual per capita loss of 6.3 percent a year for emerging market and developing economies (excluding China).

These revisions reflect to an important extent differences in pandemic developments as the delta variant takes over. Close to 40 percent of the population in advanced economies has been fully vaccinated, compared with 11 percent in emerging market economies, and a tiny fraction in low-income developing countries. Faster-than-expected vaccination rates and return to normalcy have led to upgrades, while lack of access to vaccines and renewed waves of COVID-19 cases in some countries, notably India, have led to downgrades.

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Πηγή: blogs.imf.org