The EU’s negotiator expects tensions with China

GLASGOW, Scotland — The first week of COP26 has brought a head-spinning array of pledges and flaring geopolitical tensions, Ben writes.

The big picture: Here are a few takeaways after a hectic week…

1. There’s lots of progress in theory.The International Energy Agency estimatesemissions pledges before and during COP26, if met, could hold temperature rise to 1.8°C (over 3.2°F) above preindustrial levels.

• The Paris Agreement goal is well below 2°C, and ideally 1.5°C (whether that’s still viable depends on who you ask).
• But we’re talking about targets, so this line from IEA’s post is really an understatement: “What is essential is for governments to turn their pledges into clear and credible policy actions and strategies today.”
• COP26 has also brought a bunch of big new initiativeson phasing out coal, restricting public oil-and-gas finance, fighting deforestation and much more.
• The summit could be a historical inflection point! But stay skeptical, my friends. “These announcements may generate headlines but assessing their true worth is hugely difficult, especially at speed during a COP meeting,” tweetedMohamed Adow, director of the Kenya-based think tank Power Shift Africa (h/t @edking_I).

2. The fine print — or lack thereof — matters a lot.

• Take the big newsfrom the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ), a network of banks and other investors, that over $130 trillion of capital is “committed to transforming the economy for net zero.”
• The financial sector’s push could prove extremely consequential. GFANZ head Mark Carney said the “plumbing” of finance is now in sync with climate action.
• But that headline number refers to coalition members’ total assets under management, which they’re pledging to “align” with financing the transition to net zero. For activists, well, that’s just too squishy. Several groups decried the lack of commitment to halting fossil fuel investments.
• Or consider the pledge by 25 nations (including the U.S.) and development banks to “end new direct public support for the international unabated fossil fuel energy sector.” Politico’s Zack Colman notesit provides “wide latitude for participants to set their own exemptions.”

3. China’s low profile is high on the radar.China’s lack of new commitments is a big story here and fueling U.S.-China tensions.

• “Clearly, China needs to be part of this movement going forward,” U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm told me on the sidelines of the conference.
• “China has invested significantly in renewables, but they obviously are still investing in unabated coal, and that is a problem,” she said.

4. COVID is front and center.Everyone has to show daily tests to get in, and capacity limits — on the overall venue and specific negotiating rooms — are creating tensions over limited access for delegations and civil society groups. The NYT has more.

 
 –The next collisions in Glasgow

There are significant divides between nations’ negotiating positions as the summit reaches the halfway mark, Andrew writes.

Why it matters: While the ambitious pledges are getting all the attention, closed-door meetings are unfolding in the background to hammer out specifics of how to put certain aspects of the Paris Agreement into effect, such as a carbon market to incentivize companies to reduce emissions.

What we’re watching: One question is over how frequently nations should review their emissions reduction commitments.

Paris says every five years, but many countries, including the U.S., are aiming now for such stocktaking to occur at each annual UN summit.

The intrigue: There are also thorny questions over whether and how wealthy countries should compensate developing nations for the damage they’ve already incurred from extreme weather events and other climate change impacts.

Next week is when the pace of progress and announcements may slow, as negotiators try to gain consensus around key elements of a Glasgow summit outcome.

 
-The EU’s negotiator expects tensions with China

GLASGOW, Scotland — The EU’s top climate negotiator tells Axios he’s expecting friction with China as negotiations heat up at the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow, Axios World editor Dave Lawler writes.

What they’re saying: Chinese climate envoy Xie Zhenhua fired a shot across the bow Tuesday by warning that countries pushing to amend the Paris Agreement temperature target risked “destroying consensus” and unraveling the talks.

• “We all know China is worried because the more you focus on a more ambitious temperature goal, the more you’re forced to focus on what China does next,” Jacob Werksman, the EU negotiator, told Axios Thursday. “It’s just the math in terms of where the emissions are coming from.”

The big picture: Beijing is feeling the heat in Glasgow.

• K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has publicly prodded China to shift its target for peak emissions from “before 2030” to 2025.
• President Biden went several steps further, scolding President Xi Jinpingfor skipping COP26 and China’s lack of new pledges.
• Werksman said the EU wants to keep the pressure on and is already pressing the next host, Egypt, to structure COP27 “in such a way that continues to bring pressure on China.”

 
 -Charted: Why coal is such a big deal at COP26

The chart above illustrates why the new pledge by dozens of countries to phase out coal in the 2030s and 2040s  has been one of the most attention-grabbing developments this week, Ben writes.

“Seeing major coal-burning economies such as Viet Nam, Indonesia, South Korea and Ukraine commit to a coal exit genuinely is the progress we need to see,” said Pauline Heinrichs, of the climate think tank E3G, in a statement. (Indonesia’s endorsement was partial, however.)

Yes, but: China, which accounts for about half of global coal demand, did not sign-on. Nor did India, another major user.

The U.S. didn’t either, though Alok Sharma, the U.K. official presiding over COP26, noted the U.S. has endorsed decarbonized power in the 2030s via a G7 statement in May.

 
Πηγή: axios.com