When the future is a mystery

Back in 2015, McKinsey published an article called “Delighting in the possible.” Today, during the worst economic crisis in 90 years, “delight” is in short supply among businesses. Yet the article’s subject—how to make decisions under prolonged, pervasive uncertainty—is now uniquely relevant.

In ordinary times, business executives do what the article calls “managing the probable”: finding clear answers to clear questions or manipulating tools such as algorithms and analysis to control uncertainty. Then they limit the number of alternatives they consider by asking questions like “What’s the expected return on this investment?” That approach can work well if the right course is to limit the number of alternatives.

If it isn’t—if you face a future of known and unknown unknowns—you need a different process. The authors call it “leading the possible”: trying to expand the universe of alternatives. You pose different questions, such as “What do I expect not to find?” You use a more diverse group of decision makers to consider more diverse perspectives. You might even entertain the ideas of people you dislike. To learn more about how companies can rise above the muddle and uncertainty now confronting them, read “Delighting in the possible.