Ending lockdown won’t save the economy – here’s how the government can aid recovery

Many opponents of the prolonged lockdown argue that as it is severely damaging the economy, ending it is the only way to bring the economy back to life. But the economy is already being damaged by this virulent, fast-spreading virus, to which there is no cure and currently no vaccine. Historical evidence from the 1918 flu shows that extending public health measures to prevent the spread of a virus does less economic damage in the long run than letting it ravage the entire population.

History also shows that pandemics have a long-lasting and severe effect on the economy. Looking at 15 major pandemics in Europe, from the Black Death in 1347 to the 1918 flu, researchers found that interest rates – and therefore investment – was depressed for between 30 and 50 years following an outbreak. This suggests that a “V-shaped” recovery – where economic growth returns to its previous level by the autumn – is highly unlikely.

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Πηγή: theconversation.com