How to Ensure Russia’s War with Ukraine Doesn’t Become a War with NATO

Russia has launched an unprecedented act of aggression against Ukraine. The United States and its allies must respond forcefully. But as they do, they should take into account the possibility of triggering a spiral of escalation that could lead to the only outcome worse than the invasion of Ukraine itself: a hot war between Russia and NATO.

Neither Russia nor NATO wants to go to war with the other. But history is rife with examples of states ending up in a war without initially having intended to fight, as well as cases of smaller conflicts sparking broader wars. And the circumstances of the Russian invasion create particularly significant escalation risks.

Russia has launched the largest military operation in Europe in at least a generation in a country that borders four NATO allies on land—Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania—and shares a maritime boundary with another—Turkey. With major operations now ramping up, the risk of an accident, such as a Russian military aircraft straying into NATO airspace while conducting combat operations, has grown. Russian cruise missiles have reportedly already hit targets close enough to the Polish border to set off sirens on the other side. A targeting error leading to a strike on NATO territory is far more plausible in the fog of war.

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Πηγή: rand.org