If You Came Down From Mars Would You Guess That Trump Was Winning?

The problem with trying to create post facto rationalizations.

 
Last week Bill Kristol had a long conversation with Friend-of-the-Bulwark Whit Ayres and, as always, it’s worth your time. I often view the world differently from Whit but I always profit from his analysis. He’s great.

During the course of the discussion, Whit made three arguments:

-If the election were held today, Trump would almost certainly win.

-Biden is in an extraordinarily weak position for an incumbent.

-Biden’s problem is that voters see him as they did Jimmy Carter in 1980: as a man with no ability to control the chaos that engulfs the nation.

Of these, #1 is almost certainly correct and #2 seems debatable, but plausible. For instance: Is Biden’s position weaker than Trump’s was in 2020? Or Obama’s in 2012? Or George W. Bush’s in 2004?

Biden is certainly in a weaker position than Clinton in 1996 or Reagan in 1984. I’d judge him to be a tick below the median strength for an incumbent president, but your mileage may vary.

Συνέχεια εδώ