The rise of geopolitical swing states
As the U.S. and China coexist, compete, and confront each other to determine who will set the geopolitical rules, they will either court or thwart an emerging group of countries to gain an edge. This new class of influential nations are the geopolitical swing states of the 21st century. These countries fall into four overlapping categories:
- Countries with a competitive advantage in a critical aspect of global supply chains
- Countries uniquely suited for nearshoring, offshoring, or friendshoring
- Countries with a disproportionate amount of capital and willingness to deploy it around the world
- Countries with developed economies and leaders with global visions that they pursue within certain constraints
In American domestic politics, swing states can be won by either party, and they decide presidential elections. In geopolitics, swing states have agency to chart their own course on an issue-by-issue basis, and they may decide the future of the international balance of power. They are relatively stable countries that have their own global agendas independent of Washington and Beijing, and the will and capabilities to turn those agendas into realities. They are growing more assertive in using their economic advantages to bolster their standing and influence. They are more demanding, flexible, dynamic, and strategic than they could have been in the 20th century, whatever their shared interests with one great power or another. And they will often choose multi-alignment, a strategy that will make them critical—and sometimes unpredictable—forces in the world’s next stage of globalization, and the next phase of great power competition.
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