The U.S. climate law’s global spillover
The new U.S. climate law could eventually spur lots of emerging tech adoption in other countries too, Ben writes.
State of play: Lots of studies explore how the law will speed near-term uptake of existing climate tech in the U.S. — renewables, electric vehicles, and more.
- But a new reportfrom the Rhodium Group — using methodology developed with the Bill Gates-led Breakthrough Energy — tries something different and tricky.
- It games out long-term effects of subsidies for three nascent tools — direct air capture, “clean” hydrogen, and sustainable aviation fuels — at home and abroad.
What they found: The law helps reduce costs that eventually push lots of global deployment of those emerging technologies.
- Between 2030 and 2050, it drives between 99 and 193 million metric tons of additional emissions cuts in the U.S., with a lesser amount abroad.
- But non-U.S. deployment “really picks up steam after 2050” as costs fall, and countries adopt stronger policies.
- By 2080-2100, it’s spurring 401 million to 847 million tons of avoided emissions annually outsidethe U.S. And that’s just three technologies modeled in the law that backs a wider set of tools.
The big picture: “That’s on par with the impact of the legislation as a whole in 2030,” the study finds.
Why it matters: The U.S. is the second-largest emitter right now, but global climate goals will eventually require steep cuts worldwide.
Yes, but: The authors acknowledge limitations of their model, which makes key assumptions about individual nations’ policy decisions, and more.
The bottom line: “[A]s the U.S. share of global emissions continues to decline, it will be increasingly important for policymakers to evaluate the impact of domestic policy on the pace of global low-GHG technology diffusion directly — by reducing costs and expanding production scale.”
– U.S. to China: open your wallet on climate
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is pressing China to support multilateral climate funds to help developing nations cut emissions, Ben writes.
Driving the news: Over the weekend, Yellen wrapped up a multi-day visit to the world’s second largest economy, designed to strengthen ties as Sino-American relations hit rough shoals on multiple fronts.
- “I believe that if China were to support existing multilateral climate institutions like the Green Climate Fund and the Climate Investment Funds alongside us and other donor governments, we could have a greater impact than we do today,” she said.
State of play: In appearances and interviews, Yellen said climate cooperation between China and the U.S. — the world’s two largest emitters — is a ripe area, despite tensions.
Quick take: Her comments are noteworthy in part because they’re specific — calls for U.S.-China “cooperation” are often vague and gauzy.
Of note: China has delivered 10% of its pledged $3.1 billion to the Green Climate Fund, the New York Times reports, citing studies on the topic, but also notes other Chinese aid to developing nations.
What they’re saying: Pete Ogden, VP for climate at the United Nations Foundation, said China doesn’t have the same finance commitments under the UN process as developed nations.
- Ogden, an Obama-era climate aide, notes the U.S. has long supported widening the donor base to include China and others with the capacity to contribute.
- “But it’s certainly notable that it would be one of the major messages that Secretary Yellen delivered to China’s leadership in Beijing,” he said via email.
What we’re watching: U.S. climate envoy John Kerry plans to visit China this month, the NYT and Bloomberg report.
Πηγή: axios.com
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Πηγή: ctvc.co
