Tracking the Forces Threatening the World’s Hottest Economies

The New Economy Drivers and Disrupters Report

 
Twenty years ago, China’s economy was a tenth the size of the United States. In 2019, it is two-thirds as big. In 2039, on the current trajectory, it will be more than 10% bigger. India will have leapfrogged Japan and Germany to claim the No. 3 spot in the global rankings. Vietnam will be closing in on the top 20.

Or not.

Disruptive forces are sweeping the global economy. Populist regimes are throwing out the policy rulebook. Protectionism is deadening the trade flows that drove China’s rise. Automation and the digital economy are boosting productivity for some, eroding old sources of advantage for others. The threat of climate change looms.

The path to prosperity followed by such success stories as Korea and Japan is increasingly hard to follow.

From Beijing to Brasilia, getting the right mix of smart investment, skilled workforce, innovation capacity and effective governance in place is already tough to do. Combating disruptive forces—which, from protectionism to climate change, threaten an outsize impact on low- and middle-income economies—adds to the challenge.

The New Economy Drivers and Disrupters Report captures the new forces narrowing the path to development and upending the pattern of winners and losers in the global economy.

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