Climate change: if warming approaches 2°C, a trickle of extinctions will become a flood

As delegates discuss the climate crisis in Dubai for COP28, the dazzling variety of life found on Earth hangs in the balance.

Our world has warmed by roughly 1.2°C since the pre-industrial period. Many species are already exposed to increasingly intolerable conditions, driving some populations to die off or contract at the hottest edges of their geographic ranges. Biodiversity is feeling the heat in all ecosystems and regions, from mountain tops to ocean depths.

If all national plans to cut emissions are fulfilled, the world would still be on track for 2.5-2.9°C of global warming by the end of the century. If species are stressed now, imagine how they will fare over the coming decades.

Are there thresholds of warming beyond which the risks to wildlife accelerate? And if so, where and when might we cross them? In short, what does the future hold for Earth’s biodiversity?

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