What Comes After the War in Gaza?

All eyes are focused on Gaza at the moment, whether on the hostages, Israeli military operations, or Palestinian casualties. But the war between Israel and Hamas will end, and the critical question of what comes next will loom.

It is already clear from White House pronouncements that there will be a strong push to default to past solutions, to once again begin a “process” towards “peace.” But historically, the much-ballyhooed peace process has been more process than peace. How will this next interregnum break the cycle?

In theory, a new round of efforts to pacify the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will from the outset be different, as Israel insists that Hamas will be eradicated. Hamas, in its turn, has sought to radicalize the Palestinian cause, sidelining any advocates for peace with the Jewish state as traitors.

Before any massive peace confab can take place, there will be a global effort to help rebuild Gaza. The Israeli national unity government has already declared that post-war Gaza will be completely disconnected from the State of Israel, open only to Egypt should the Egyptian government be amenable. In this scenario, there will be no more basic goods transfers, no more trade, no more work visas for Palestinians in Gaza, and effectively a closed border with Israel.

This situation will offer a critical opportunity to the international aid complex: How can any new assistance be channeled to the Palestinian people, and not their kleptocratic leaders? And an even harder question: Can there be a new model for aiding Palestinians that avoids creating another donor-dependent, public sector-heavy basketcase that simply replicates every effort of the last half century? In this respect, Gaza will be a test case.

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Πηγή: aei.org